洞庭湖区农业气象灾情指数与作物模式产量的灰色关联分析

为探明关键气象灾害对环洞庭湖区作物及种植模式的危害情况,为防灾减灾提供科学依据。基于1994—2013年岳阳站、常德站、益阳站的农业气象资料和《湖南农村统计年鉴》环洞庭湖区各作物的产量,对该地区农业气象灾害的灾情指数、作物产量进行分析,并对灾情指数和作物产量及种植模式产量进行灰色关联分析。结果表明,环洞庭湖区气象灾害主要是高温、干旱、低温和洪涝。环洞庭湖区各地区出现灾年的时间是不完全相同的,还是存在地区差异性。灰色关联分析表明:高温对常德和益阳地区的作物产量影响最大,而轻度干旱对岳阳地区的作物产量影响最大。对双季稻+冬闲、一季稻+油菜、油菜+棉花和油菜+玉米4种种植模式来说,高温和轻度干旱对其影响最大,其次还有倒春寒、轻度洪涝、中度干旱、轻度寒露风和4月低温等灾害影响较大。

Agrometeorological Disasters Damage Index and Crop Planting Pattern Yield in Dongting Lake Area: Grey Correlation Analysis

To explore the damage caused by key meteorological disasters to crops and planting patterns in Dongting Lake area and provide a basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, based on the agrometeorological data in Yueyang, Changde and Yiyang station from 1994 to 2013, and the crop yield of Dongting Lake area in Hunan Rural Statistical Yearbook, we analyzed the disaster index and crop yield of agrometeorological disasters in this region, and conducted a grey correlation analysis of disaster index, crop yield and planting pattern yield. The results showed that: the meteorological disasters in Dongting Lake mainly were high temperature, drought, low temperature and flood; the time of disaster year in Dongting Lake area was not the same, and there were regional differences; grey correlation analysis showed that: high temperature had the greatest effect on crop yield in Changde and Yiyang, while light drought had the greatest effect on crop yield in Yueyang. High temperature and mild drought had the greatest effect on 4 planting patterns of double cropping rice with winter fallow, single-season rice with rape, rape with cotton and rape with corn, followed by disasters such as late spring cold, mild flood, moderate drought, mild cold dew wind weather and low temperature in April.