内蒙古农牧交错区草地气候生产力对气候变化的响应

摘要：本研究以太仆寺旗为例，利用1979-2009年的气候数据，分析了内蒙古农牧交错区气候变化趋势，并结合Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型研究草地气候生产力对不同气候变化情景的响应。结果表明,近30年来，太仆寺旗年平均气温增温趋势明显（每10年0.62 ℃）,四季平均气温均有显著上升，以冬季升温最明显（每10年0.84 ℃）；年降水量有下降趋势（每10年5.3 mm），但趋势不明显；综合考虑水热因子的Thornthwaite Memorial模型更能够反映草地气候生产力的变化趋势，与温度相比，降水是影响草地生产力的关键因子；在气候变暖的背景下， “暖湿型”气候可提高草地气候生产力，变化幅度为8.3%~16.7%，假如未来气候向“暖干型”发展，草地气候生产力的变化为-4.8%~3.5%。

Response of grassland climate productivity to climate change in farming-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia

Abstract: Based on the tendency of climate change including temperature and precipitation during the period 1979-2009 in Taipusi banner of Inner Mongolia, the Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model were used to determine the repines of Grassland Climate Productivity to Climate Change in Farming Pastoral Area. This study showed that the annual mean temperature of Taipusi Banner increased significantly by 0.62 ℃ per 10 years in the recent 30 years. In addition, seasonal temperature tended to rise clearly, in which winter temperature increased most significantly by 0.84 ℃ per 10 years. The annual precipitation showed a slight decreasing trend in by 5.3 mm per 10 years. Although there were different trend in seasonal precipitation, decreasing in spring precipitation and autumn precipitation and increasing in summer precipitation and winter precipitation, but all the trends were not clear. This study further showed that the Thornthwaite Memorial model could better coincides grassland climate productivity to the tendency of climate change in comparison with Miami model. The correlation analysis showed that the precipitation is the key factor limiting grassland climate productivity of farming pastoral area in Inner Mongolia. It is calculated that warm wet type climate was beneficial to grassland climate productivity increasing with a yield increasing rate of 8.3% to 16.7%. In the future, if the climate tend to warm dry type, grassland climate productivity would be affected from -4.8% to 3.5%.