内蒙古大兴安岭森林火险等级预报模型研究

为提高森林火险等级预报的准确率和及时率，减少森林资源损失。以内蒙古大兴安岭地区为研究区域，利用遥感MODIS-NDVI数据反演可燃物的湿度指数，以气象指数、植被指数、闪电指数、湿度指数共同计算得出森林火险指数，以火险指数作为内蒙古大兴安岭地区森林火险等级预报模型的量化指标，并对火险等级进行分级，获得内蒙古大兴安岭森林火险等级预报方法。该方法结合当地的实际情况，将闪电指数引入到预报模型中，并实现了定量化估测。同时，以近几年发生在该地区重特大森林火灾为例，对该预报模型进行了验证。该方法可较好地对内蒙古大兴安岭地区森林火险等级进行定量化预报。

Prediction Model of Forest Fire Risk Level in Greater Khingan Mountains of Inner Mongolia

In order to improve the accuracy and timeliness of forest fire risk level prediction and reduce forest resource loss, the Greater Khingan Mountains region of Inner Mongolia was researched. The humidity index of combustibles was inverted using MODIS-NDVI remote sensing data, and the forest fire risk index was calculated using meteorological index, vegetation index, lightning index and humidity index. The fire risk index was used as the quantitative indicator of the forest fire risk level prediction model in the Greater Khingan Mountains region of Inner Mongolia, to classify the fire risk level and obtain a forest fire risk level prediction method. This method combined the local actual situation and introduced the lightning index into the prediction model, achieving quantitative estimation. At the same time, the prediction model was validated using the example of major forest fires occurred in recent years. This method could quantitatively predict the forest fire risk level in the Greater Khingan Mountains region of Inner Mongolia.