| 基于Clue-S模型的石马河流域东莞段生态系统服务价值变化情景模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 张沐锋,刘万侠,王健恩,罗先强,陈平,宫清华.基于Clue-S模型的石马河流域东莞段生态系统服务价值变化情景模拟[J].水土保持通报,2021,41(1):152-160. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张沐锋 刘万侠 王健恩 罗先强 陈平 宫清华 |
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| 作者单位： | 仲恺农业工程学院 园艺园林学院, 广东 广州 510225;广州地理研究所, 广东省地理 空间信息技术与应用公共实验室, 广东 广州 510070;广州地理研究所, 广东省地理 空间信息技术与应用公共实验室, 广东 广州 510070;南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 广东 广州 511458 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目“华南地区强降水诱发的群发性滑坡形成机理与预警阈值”（41671506），“华南强降水诱发的群发性滑坡表土液化机理与流态化过程”（41977413）；广东省科学院专项（2020040101，2020GDASYL-20200102002，20200301003）；南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室项目（GML2019ZD0301） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]探究生态系统服务价值演变的内在作用机制,旨在寻求以流域为单元的生态农业和城镇的优化配置模式。方法]基于土地利用及生态服务价值相关理论与方法,以石马河流域东莞段2010-2020年土地利用数据为基础,利用Clue-S模型对2025年土地利用格局进行模拟,得出2025年区域在生态安全、耕地优先和建设发展3种情景下的土地利用空间布局和优化配置结果,分析各情景下流域生态系统服务价值时空格局。结果]在2010-2020年,石马河流域东莞段生态服务价值下降了1.80×107元,主要为耕地、林地、园地转出。2025年在耕地优先、生态安全、建设发展的情境下ESV分别为9.44×107,9.62×107,9.38×107元,除了生态安全之外,其余两个情景较2020年生态系统服务价值ESV都有下滑。结论]对处于快速城镇化发展且生态与发展矛盾突出的地区,进行流域生态系统服务价值进行模拟与分析,有利于增强对区域在不同发展模式下生态系统服务价值空间布局的认识和理解,为土地利用规划与生态经济协调发展提供宏观的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | CLUE-S模型 情景分析 生态系统服务价值 土地利用 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/9/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/10/20 0:00:00 |
Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model |
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| Zhang Mufeng,Liu Wanxi,Wang Jianen,Luo Xianqiang,Chen Ping,Gong Qinghua.Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,41(1):152-160. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Mufeng Liu Wanxi Wang Jianen Luo Xianqiang Chen Ping Gong Qinghua |
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| Institution: | College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Zhongkai University of Agriculture Engineering, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510225, China;Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510070, China; Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510070, China;Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511458, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective] To explore the intrinsic mechanism of ecosystem service value (ESV) evolution, an optimal allocation model for ecological agriculture with towns and river basins as units was investigated.Methods] Based on the theories and methods of land use and ecological service value, with the Shima River basin land use data from 2010 to 2020, the Clue-S model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2025, and the results of land use spatial distribution and optimal allocation under three scenarios of ecological security, farmland priority and construction and development in 2025 were obtained, and the space-time pattern of watershed ESV under each scenario was analyzed.Results] From 2010 to 2020, the ecological service value of the Dongguan section of the Shima River basin decreased by 1.80×107 yuan, which was mainly converted into cultivated land, forest and orchard. The ESVs were 9.44×107, 9.62×107, and 9.38×107 yuan under the condition of giving priority to the ecological security of the construction and development of cultivated land in 2025. In addition to ecological security, the other two scenarios showed a decline from the ESV in 2020.Conclusion] In areas with rapid urbanization and a prominent contradiction between ecology and development, the simulation and analysis of watershed ESV is helpful to enhance the understanding of the spatial distribution of ESVs under different development modes and to provide macroscopic reference for land use planning and coordinated development of an ecological economy. |
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| Keywords: | Clue-S model scenario analysis ecosystem services value (ESV) land use |
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