1960~2012年内蒙古阿拉善盟平均气温和降水量变化特征分析

利用内蒙古阿拉善盟8个气象站1960--2012年平均气温和年平均降水量资料，应用气候统计学方法，分析了该地区近53年年平均气温和降水量的变化趋势、突变时间点、周期特征等。结果显示：①内蒙古阿拉善盟近53年，气温升高显著，升温幅度为0．33℃／10年；年降水量变化趋势不显著，但年际间波动较大，最少年与最多年降水量相差1．6倍。②该地区年平均气温存在明显的突变特征，突变时间点是1987--1988年，突变后年平均气温显著升高，而年降水量没有明显的突变特征。③该地区年平均气温在53年时间尺度上没有显著的周期波动，但在1980--2000年存在4年左右的周期显著。年降水量的小波周期特征比气温复杂，呈现出多个周期叠加的特性。其中，20世纪70年代到20世纪末，降水量的波动性较复杂，存在着12、9和5年的显著周期变化。

Analysis on Change Characteristics of Average Temperature and Precipitation in Alxa League from 1960 to 2012

Based on annual average temperature and annual precipitation data in eight stations of Alxa League from 1960 to 2012, the changing trend, mutation time point, cycle characteristics of annual average temperature and precipitation in recent 53 years were analyzed by using climatic statistics methods. Results showed that in recently 53 years, the temperature in Alxa League increased significantly, with the increasing rise of 0.33 ℃/10a; the change trend of annual precipitation was not significant, but year variation was great, and the minimum and the maximum annual precipitation differed probably 1.6 times. The annual average temperature had obvious characteristics of the mutation, and the mutation time point was 1987-1988, subsequently the average temperature increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no obvious mutation characteristic. The annual average temperature had no significant cyclic fluctuation in 53 years time scale,and four years cycle existed between 1980 and 2000. Wavelet cycle characteristics of precipitation was more complex than temperature and showed the characteristics of multi-period superposition. From the 1970＇s of the last century to the end of the last century, the fluctuation of precipitation was more complex and existed significant periodic variations of 12, 9 and 5 years.