中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

文中基于中国胶合板出口面板数据构建随机前沿引力模型，实证分析中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力。贸易非效率项分析结果表明:人民币贬值和自由贸易协定是贸易促进因素，出口目的地货币贬值、金融危机以及反倾销和反补贴是贸易阻碍因素。根据贸易潜力分析结果，将中国胶合板出口市场分为4种类型，即高潜力低效率的新兴市场、高潜力高效率的成熟市场、低潜力低效率的待开发市场和低潜力高效率的次要市场；在此基础上，针对不同市场类型的特点提出优化中国胶合板行业出口贸易布局的战略措施。

Analysis of the Influential Factors and Potential of China's Plywood Export Trade Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

Based on the panel data of China''s plywood exports, the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model is used to analyze the influence factors and potential of China''s plywood export trade. The analysis of trade inefficiency shows that RMB devaluation and free trade agreements have boosted China''s plywood exports, while export destinations'' currency devaluation, world financial crises, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy have impeded China''s plywood exports. According to the results on trade potential analysis, China''s plywood export markets could be divided into four types:emerging market of high trade potential and low trade efficiency, mature market of high trade potential and high trade efficiency, untapped market of low trade potential and low trade efficiency and secondary market of low trade potential and high trade efficiency. On this basis, the strategic measures are proposed to optimize China''s plywood export pattern according to the characteristics of different market types.