黑龙江省近56年气温降水变化特征及突变分析

摘要：利用黑龙江省14个地面气象观测站1954-2009年的气温和降水资料，运用气候趋势系数和一元回归分析法进行气候变化的趋势分析。结果表明：黑龙江省年气温变化总趋势是上升的，降水变化总趋势是减少的；四季年年平均气温均呈现上升趋势，且春季增幅较大。除春季降水量呈上升趋势，夏、秋、冬季呈现减少趋势，秋季降幅最大，而且秋季降水减少趋势最明显。在此基础上，利用气候要素累积距平曲线和检验信噪比（S/N）进行气候突变分析，结果表明：气温突变出现在1987年，降水突变出现在1963年、1979年和1994年，但突变均不明显。

Analysis on the Variatiion Character of Temperature and Precipitation and Abrupt Change in Heilongjiang in Recent 56 Years

Based on the monthly data of air temperature and precipitation in the last 56 years from 14 stations in Heilongjiang Province, the climatic variations and tendencies of the Heilongjiang Province were analysed by calculating climate trend coefficient and simple regression analysis. The results showed that in the last 56 years, there was a 0.39℃/（10 years） increase in the annual air temperature. Seasonal air temperatures were all tending to rise, while increasing of air temperature in the spring was higher （0.5℃/（10 years）） than others. There was only a little increase tendency for annual precipitation, and the tendency ratio was - 8.91 mm/（10 years）. Decrease of precipitation in autumn is obvious. On this basis, using climate elements cumulative test curve and test signal of noise ratio（S/N） to analyze climate mutation. The results showed that the temperature mutation appeared in 1987 and the precipitation mutation appeared in 1963, 1979 and 1994, but all of them were not obvious.