Predicting catches for the Lough Neagh (Northern Ireland) eel fishery based on stock inputs, effort and environmental variables

Abstract  The Lough Neagh eel fishery is the largest remaining commercial source of wild European eels. Following the pan-European elver crash in the 1980s, the numbers of elvers entering the Lough fell drastically, prompting the Lough Neagh Fishermen's Co-operative Society Ltd (LNFCS) to purchase additional glass eels from a UK distributor. LNFCS have continued to purchase glass eels, when market prices have been favourable, to supplement the natural glass eel input. This study assesses the impact of these stocked glass eels on the Lough Neagh yellow and silver eel fisheries with a predictive model based on natural and stocked glass eel input, effort and environmental variables. Despite the final models' limitations to assess conclusively the contribution of the additional purchased glass eels the models can be used cautiously to predict, in the short term, yellow and silver eel output. The models will require reviewing, on an annual basis, as further data become available.