Simulated effects of climate change on the production pattern of winter cauliflower in the UK |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Section of Epilepsy, Department of Neurology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou Medical Center and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Taoyuan, Taiwan;2. Division of Pediatric Neurology, Chang Gung University, College of Medicine, Taoyuan, Taiwan;3. Chang Gung Children''s Hospital Study Group for Children with Encephalitis/Encephalopathy Related Status Epilepticus and Epilepsy (CHEESE), Taiwan;4. Molecular Imaging Center and Department of Nuclear Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou Medical Center, Taoyuan, Taiwan;5. Healthy Aging Research Center and Department of Medical Imaging and Radiological Sciences, Chang Gung University, Taiwan;6. Division of Thoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou Medical Center, Taoyuan, Taiwan;7. Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Chang Gung University, College of Medicine, Taoyuan, Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | Models of the phases of juvenility, curd induction and curd growth, driven by temperature, were developed for Roscoff, Walcheren and Roscoff×Walcheren winter cauliflower types and were linked to enable prediction of the time of curd maturity. Because some crop types in Cornwall (west of UK); Lincolnshire (east of UK) responded differently to weather, separate models were developed for each location. These models were then applied to each cauliflower type at four locations in the UK (Cornwall and Pembrokeshire (west); Kent and Lincolnshire (east)) using four climate impact emissions scenarios and three time-slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100). In all forecasts temperatures increased relative to baseline data (1961–1990). The phases of juvenility and curd growth were shortened by increased temperature, while in most cases that of curd induction was increased. The net effect was to advance maturity in all situations except for Roscoff types grown in Cornwall. Maturity was particularly advanced in Pembrokeshire because temperatures were closest to the optimum for curd induction. The effects of location were greater than those of time-slice and scenario and effects on Roscoff×Walcheren types were greater than those on Roscoff or Walcheren types. |
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