| 基于统计分辨模型的害虫种群动态预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈健.基于统计分辨模型的害虫种群动态预报研究[J].现代农业科技,2011(15):182+184. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈健 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省临沂市兰山区义堂农技站,山东临沂,276013 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用统计分辨原理,对临沂市1995—2007年棉花苗期棉蚜的系统观测资料进行了数量分析,建立了统计分辨数学模型,经对历史资料的回报验证,其总拟合率92.31%,将2008年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报,其预报结果与实际一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 统计分辨模型 棉蚜 种群动态 预测预报 |
Forecasting of Population Dynamics of Pest Based on Statistic Discriminatory Model |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jian |
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| Institution: | CHEN Jian(Yitang Station of Agricutural Technique of Lanshan Prefecture in Linyi City in Shandong Province,Linyi Shandong 276013) |
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| Abstract: | According to of two-level discriminatory principle,the data about the occurrence amount of Aphis gossypii Glover in cotton seeding stage from 1995 to 2007 in Linyi City was analyzed,and then statistic discriminatory model was built.Using historic data for |
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| Keywords: | statistic discriminatory model Aphis gossypii Glover population dynamics forecasting |
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