河北省核桃生产的波动性分析

利用年度统计数据,首先对河北省核桃生产变动及在全国的地位作了动态比较分析;其次对河北省核桃产量与单产和结果面积关联度进行了计算,发现产量与结果面积的关联度高于产量与单产的关联度;最后,对核桃短期和长期波动进行研究,发现核桃生产平均每3.8年经历一个波动周期,结果面积的长期波动性大于单产的长期波动性。研究结果对于河北省的核桃生产有指导意义。

Analysis on Walnut Production Volatility in Hebei Province

This article,firstly,analyzes the walnut production in Hebei Province based on the annual statistics and secondly,calculates the association degree between walnut production,yield and fruit bearing area,and finds that the association degree between production and fruit bearing area is higher than the association degree between production and yield.At last,a research is conducted on the short-term and long-term fluctuations of walnut production and it's found that three years experiences a volatile period and the long-term volatility of the fruit bearing area is greater than long-term volatility of the yields.