基于灰色系统理论的区域耕地供需动态变化预测与模拟——以四川盆地中部丘陵区为例

以四川盆地中部丘陵区为例,基于区域1996~2004年耕地利用变化数据,运用灰色系统理论及其他相关预测方法,对未来年期内耕地供需的动态变化情况进行了科学的预测与模拟分析。研究表明:由于建设占用、农业结构调整、生态退耕等因素的综合影响,区内耕地供给呈直线下降,且趋势较为明显,而耕地的需求量却逐年增加。在此双重影响下,研究区耕地的供、需形势将日趋紧张。因而,文章分别从经济、法律、市场机制以及节约和集约型利用机制等角度,有针对性地提出研究区耕地可持续利用的对策措施。

Numerical Simulation and Prediction of Supply-demand Changes in Regional Cultivated Land Based on Gray System Theory——A Case Study of the Hilly Country in the Sichuan Basin

Taking the hilly country in the Sichuan basin as an example, this paper predicts and analyzes the supply and demand of infield in the future by using gray theory and other methods, based on the dramatic changes of cultivated land in the past 9 years (1996 to 2004). The results showed that the supply of cultivated land declines with the increase of the demand, due to construction occupation, agricultural restructure and cropland conversion. The relationship between supply and demand of infield will be tenser because of both influences. Finally, some countermeasures were pointed out from different perspectives such as economy, law, market system etc.