秀山县暴雨成因分析及预报模式

为了分析研究秀山县暴雨发生的气候规律及其成因，通过对秀山1971—2010年间173个暴雨个例的年季变化特点、本地气象要素的变化、高空环流形势的演变进行统计分析，找出秀山县暴雨发生时的气候背景、环流形势。结果表明：秀山县暴雨开始前常常伴随气温回升，水汽压上升，气压下降的情况，当高空环流形势满足中高纬度两槽一脊型、东北低槽型、切断低压型和台风倒槽型其中一种形势时，秀山县未来24~48h内将出现1次区域性暴雨天气过程。统计得出了秀山县暴雨预报模式，为秀山县暴雨预报服务提供参考依据。

Rainstorm Cause Analysis and Forecasting Model in Xiushan County

Objective]To analyze research XiuShanXian rainstorm climate law and its causes, Method]Xiushan 1971-2010 between 173 rainstorm one example of the change in season features, change the local meteorological elements, high-altitude circulation situation Evolution of statistical analysis to identify climate background XiuShanXian rainstorm occurred, circulation situation, Result]Before XiuShanXian often accompanied by heavy rains began temperatures rise, water vapor pressure increases, pressure drop, when aerial circulation situation meets the two high-latitude trough of a ridge, northeast of the low groove, cut off the low-pressure type and typhoon inverted trough in one situation, there will be a regional rainstorm process XiuShanXian within the next 24-48 hours; Conclusion]statistics obtained the XiuShanXian rainstorm forecasting model to provide a reference for XiuShanXian rainstorm forecasting service.