多元双重筛选回归法分析气候因子对临沂市水稻产量因素的影响

本文通过利用山东省临沂市1994～2007年的气候资料和临沂国家农业气象基本站的水稻观测资料，采用多元双重筛选回归法分析了水稻不同生育期气象因子对水稻各主要产量因素的影响。结果表明：影响临沂市水稻产量的最主要因子为幼穗分化期的降水量，其间降水量每增加1mm，每hm^2水稻大约减产13．5kg。影响空秕率的主要影响因子是穗发育期的日平均温度，其中穗发育期温度每升高1℃，水稻的空秕率大约下降3．93个百分点。水稻的穗粒数和成穗率共同受到分蘖期日照时数的影响，分蘖期日照时数每延长1h，穗粒数大约减少0．24粒，成穗率大约下降0．07个百分点。影响水稻成穗率的另一主要气象要素为穗发育期的日平均温度。水稻千粒重主要受幼穗分化期的日平均温度和降水量的影响，幼穗分化期低温多雨不利于千粒重增加。

Using Multiple Regression Double Screeningwe to Analysis the Responses of Climate Factors to the Rice Yield in Linyi

Based on the data of climate and rice observation in Linyi City of Shandong Province basic national agrometeorological station from 1994 - 2007, using multiple regression double screening, we analysised the influence of Meteorological factors in different growth period to the major production of the rice. The result indicated that the precipitation in the Spike differentiation period was the main element affecting the Rice Yield in Linyi City, during this period the Rice Yield decreased 13.5Kg per ha as the precipitation increasing lmm. The principal factor influencing the Air Unfulfilled rate was the average temperature in the spike growing period, the Air Unfulfilled Rate of rice descended approximately 3.93 per cent as the temperature ascending 1 ~C . The granule of the rice Ear and the rate of earing was affected in common by the sunshine hours in the Tillering stage, along with the sunshine extending one hour in Tillering stage, the granule of the rice Ear reduced probably 0.24 granule and the rate of earing 0.07 per cent. The other major meteorological element impacting the granule of the rice Ear was the average temperature in the spike growing stage. Thousand-grain weight（ TSG ） was effeeted mainly by the average temperature and precipitation in the Spike differentiation period, during which low temperature and much raining would not be hepful to the increasing of TSG.