我国小麦市场价格传递实证研究

2001年以来,我国粮食购销市场化的步伐加快。比较了粮食购销市场化改革前后我国小麦批发市场与收购市场以及零售市场之间的价格联系。结果表明:我国小麦市场在"粮改"前后均存在着整合;但是短期内小麦市场价格信息传递程度随着粮食购销的放开得到提高,小麦市场的运行效率得到提高。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果证明我国粮食批发市场是小麦市场价格变动的中心环节。政府对批发市场的价格调节将对我国小麦市场的稳定有着重要的影响。

Empirical Study on Price Transmission of Chinese Wheat Market

Chinese grain market reform speeded up since 2001.Comparison of the price relations before and after the reform among the wheat markets,purchase market,wholesale market and retail market were conducted.Result showed that Chinese wheat market in long term showed integrated,but in short term was gradually integrated.After the grain reform,Chinese wheat market was more efficient.Granger causality test showed that the wholesale market price changes were always at the central link.Government regulation of wholesale market prices had important implications to stabilize Chinese grain market.