杉木种子产量预测方法的初步研究

以花芽数和球果数的系统抽样为基础，采用可见半面树冠法和信息段法分别建立了杉木种子园单株球果产量的预测模型，并利用球果切开法建立了球果种粒数预测模型。结果表明利用可见半面树冠法预测单株球果产量简便易行、精度较高，最佳信息段法预测精度较高、适用性强，球果切开法能估测全球果的饱满种粒数、空粒数和涩粒数，同其它方法结合使用可预测种子产量和质量等级。各类预测模型的检验均达极显著水平，可根据实际需要选择应用。

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON WAYS TO PREDICT SEED YIELD OF CHINESE FIR

To predict the seed yield of Chinese firCunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.)Hook.],a model via visible female cone or immature cone in crown,a model via the most informative section of crown,and a model via cutting cone were established on the basis of the number of female cones and immature cones after systematic sampling. Each model had its own merit,but all the three were verified easy,accurate and highly applicable.