云斑斜线天蛾在我国的适生性及限制性环境因子分析

云斑斜线天蛾是一种为害抗风桐的迁飞性昆虫,在我国西沙群岛多个岛屿发生。阐明云斑斜线天蛾在我国的适生区分布及其主要限制环境因子,可为该害虫扩散预警与防控提供理论依据。本文利用MaxEnt模型对云斑斜线天蛾在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,通过调整调控倍频和特征组合参数建立最优模型,使用刀切法及环境变量响应曲线对影响云斑斜线天蛾分布的环境因子进行评估。结果表明：云斑斜线天蛾在我国的潜在适生区位于海南、台湾、广东、广西、云南、贵州、湖南、江西、福建、浙江、安徽、湖北、四川、重庆、西藏;最冷月最低温（bio06）、昼夜温差月均值（bio02）、最暖季降水量（bio18）是影响云斑斜线天蛾潜在地理分布的主导环境因子。云斑斜线天蛾在我国南海诸岛具有较高危险性,建议建立监测预警与防控系统,将该害虫控制在合理水平。

Suitability and Restrictive Environmental Factors of Hippotion velox in China

Hippotion velox is a migratory insect that damages Pisonia grandis. It occurs in many islands of China Paracel Islands. MaxEnt model was used to to clarify the potential suitable area and the main environmental factors of H. velox in China and to provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention of the insect. An optimal model by adjusting the regularization multiplier and feature combination parameters was established. The environmental factors affecting the distribution of H. velox were evaluated using the jackknife method and the response curve of environmental variables. The potential suitable area of H. velox are distributed in Hainan, Taiwan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan, Chongqing, Tibet. The min temperature of the coldest month (bio06), the mean diurnal range (bio02) and the precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential suitable area of H. velox. H. velox has a high risk in the South China Sea islands. It is recommended to establish an early warning and control system to to control the pest at a reasonable level.