中国绿洲区农业生产的水热条件及可持续利用对策

中国绿洲区光热资源丰富,在灌溉条件下,农产品品质好、产量高,农业生产在全国具有重要的地位。2005年该区人均粮食为全国平均水平的1.36倍,小麦、玉米、棉花和葡萄产量分别占全国总量的5.1%,4.2%,30.0%和23.1%。在对该区农业生产地位、农业结构特点、光温生产潜力分析的同时,利用1951-2006年区内7个气象站的逐年降水与气温资料,分析了该区水热条件的变化趋势。结果表明:20世纪90年代中国绿洲区气温普遍趋增,且增温明显,到了21世纪,除河套绿洲气温趋减外,其他绿洲区呈持续增温态势;降水的变化90年代河套、河西走廊和准噶尔盆地绿洲呈明显增加趋势。根据上述分析与政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)预测的未来气候的可能变化,建议该区应大力发展特色农业(优质棉花、高产粮食、优质红花、优质葡萄、优质枸杞),培育、推广优质品种,兴修水利以及发展节水灌溉等。

Study on the Water-Heat Conditions and their Sustainable Utilization Measures for Agricultural Production in the Oases in China

Oases are the important agricultural regions in China,where it is rich in light-heat resources,the quality and yield of farm products are high under irrigation conditions,and the agricultural production in the oases takes an important position in China.The per capita grain yield in these oases in 2005 was 1.36 times of the average in China,in which the yields of wheat,corn,cotton and grapes occupied 5.1%,4.2%,30.0% and 23.1% of the totals in China,respectively.While analyzing the agricultural production position,agricultural structure and sunshine and temperature production potentials in the oases,in this study the change trend of water-heat conditions is lucubrated using the annual precipitation and temperature data observed by 7 meteorological stations in the study area during the period of 1951-2006.The results reveal that the temperature is universally increased,and the precipitation is in a decrease trend in the east but in an increase trend in the west.According to the analyzed results mentioned above and the predicted results of climate change in the near future by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),some measures are suggested for the sustainable utilization of farming resources,they are to devote major efforts to developing characteristic agriculture,such as the high-quality cotton,high-yield crops,high-quality Carthamus tinctorius,high-quality grapes and high-quality Lycium chinensis,breed and popularize high-quality varieties,undertake new water conservancy projects,develop water-saving irrigation,etc.