我国农业绿色发展水平地区差异及分布动态演进

【目的】研究分析我国农业绿色发展水平区域差异和演变趋势。【方法】基于2010～2018年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)面板数据，采用熵值法和线性加权法，测度农业绿色发展水平，并采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计方法及Markov链方法，分析我国农业绿色发展水平地区间差异、分布动态及长期转移趋势。【结果】(1)2010～2018年，东部和中部地区农业绿色发展水平差异逐年上升，年均增长率分别为4.6%、2.2%;西部地区农业绿色发展水平差异由2010年的0.113下降至2018年的0.093,年均下降率为3%。2018年，东-西地区间差异高达0.113。(2)东部地区农业绿色发展水平增速显著，西部地区呈现出较强的两极分化特点。(3)低水平(Ⅰ)、中等水平(Ⅱ)、中高等水平(Ⅲ)和高等水平(Ⅳ)地区的农业绿色发展水平的自我锁定概率依次增高，分别为64.29%、71.25%、84.38%、97.73%,且向上级跃迁概率均大于降级概率，当达到稳态分布时，将出现在81.34%的高等水平(Ⅳ)地区。【结论】我国农业绿色发展总体差异化水平逐年增大，且存在一定的两极分化现象；东、中、西部地区之...

Regional Difference and Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Green Development Level in China

【Objective】 To study regional differences and evolution trend of agricultural green development level in China. 【Method】 Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2018, Entropy method and Linear Weighting method to measure the level of agricultural green development, and Dagum Gini Coefficient, Kernel Density Estimation and Markov chain analysis methods were used to empirically analyze the regional differences, distribution dynamics and long-term shift trend of China's agricultural green development level. 【Results】 (1) From 2010 to 2018, the difference in the level of agricultural green development in the eastern and central regions increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6% and 2.2%, respectively; The difference of agricultural green development level in western region decreased from 0.113 in 2010 to 0.093 in 2018, and the average annual decline rate was 3.In 2018, the difference between east and west is as high as 0.113.(2) The growth rate of agricultural green development in the eastern region was remarkable, and the western region showed strong polarization characteristics.(3) The self-locking probability of agricultural green development level in low level (I), middle level (II), middle and higher level (III) and higher level (IV) increased in turn, which were 64.29%, 71.25%, 84.38% and 97.73%, respectively, and the transition probability to higher level was higher than that of demotion.When the steady state distribution was reached, it would stand at 81.34% higher level (IV) area. 【Conclusion】 The overall differentiation level of agricultural green development in China is increasing year by year, and there is a certain polarization phenomenon; The difference level of agricultural green development between the east, middle and western regions is remarkable, and the phenomenon of polarization increases in turn.With the continuous development of high quality agriculture in China, the level of agricultural green development in China will be steadily distributed to the higher level (IV).