遗传投影寻踪模型在贵州典型喀斯特地区旱情分析中的应用研究

以处于贵州黔东南的沅江水系为研究对象，取1962-2011年50年中，极端干旱年份气象数据作为建模数据，开展该区域的年度干旱特征和旱情评估研究。分别以年降水量、年平均气温、年最高气温、年日照时数、年平均风速、年平均相对湿度、年最小相对湿度、年平均气压8个主要气象因素，建立遗传投影寻踪模型，对研究区域旱情特征进行综合评价，评价结果表明：年降雨量、年最高气温是导致研究区域干旱最显著的致灾影响因素，因此必须加强对该类气象因素的预警预报工作。

Applied research of drought analysis of karst area in guizhou based on the genetic projection pursuit model

Based on the YuanJiang water system as the research object in guizhou province, we have taken 50 years from 1962 to 2011, extreme drought years as the modeling data, meteorological data in the area''s annual drought characteristics and drought assessment research. With annual precipitation, annual average temperature, highest temperature, annual sunshine duration, annual average wind speed, annual average relative humidity and annual minimum relative humidity, annual average air pressure eight major meteorological factors, genetic projection pursuit model was established, the regional drought characteristics of study on comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation results showed that the annual precipitation, annual highest temperature are the most significant to study regional drought affecting factors, so we must strengthen the early warning forecast of the meteorological factors.