基于3S技术的区域性耕地资源变化影响评价模式研究

针对目前尚未形成国内外公认的耕地资源变化影响评价方法,该文提出基于耕地生产能力评价指标体系、耕地质量评价指标体系以及耕地自然等和利用等指标体系的3种区域性耕地资源评价指标体系,确定3种基于3S技术的耕地资源变化影响评价模式.与基于粮食单产划分耕地等级进行评价的传统方法,共同构成了区域性耕地资源变化影响评价的4种方案.还分析了4种评价方案的思想基础、特点及实用性的差异.并以东北地区为案例,利用耕地自然等和利用等指标体系方法,分析了1993～2003年东北耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响.此外,提出作物种植结构以及作物品种变化对粮食生产能力影响评价的建议.为区域性耕地资源变化影响评价方法体系提供参考和借鉴.

Methodology for impact assessment of regional cultivated land resources change based on 3S technology

As there has been no generally accepted assessing indicator system on the impact of regional cultivated land change, this research explored three different kinds of evaluation indicator systems of regional cultivated land, which include cultivated land productive capacity indicators, cultivated land quality indicators and cultivated land natural grading and utilizing grading indicators, and three kinds of effect evaluation model of cultivated land resource change were established by using 3S technique. With the traditional method taking grain yield per hectare as an indicator, four assessment methods were created. And it analyzed the differences among four assessment methods in theory, characteristic and practicability. Taking North-eastern China as study case, the impact of cultivated land change on its grain production capacity was analyzed by the third method during the period of 1993 to 2003. Moreover, this paper proposed the impact assessment of crop planting structure and crop varieties on grain productivity. The results can provide useful information for the research related.