| 基于灰色系统理论的兵团棉花产量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾佳,康顺光.基于灰色系统理论的兵团棉花产量预测研究[J].塔里木农垦大学学报,2014(1):72-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾佳 康顺光 |
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| 作者单位： | 塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对2001~2012年新疆生产建设兵团的棉花产量数据的分析,建立了棉花产量的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,结合Matlab软件对兵团近三年的棉花产量进行预测,经后验差检验,预测精度达到一级.该预测结果对兵团棉花产业发展都有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 新疆生产建设兵团 棉花产量 GM（1 1）模型 |
The Research on the Forecasting of Cotton Yields in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Based on Grey System Theory |
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| Jia Jia Kang Shunguang.The Research on the Forecasting of Cotton Yields in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Based on Grey System Theory[J].Journal of Tarim University of Agricultural Reclamation,2014(1):72-75. |
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| Authors: | Jia Jia Kang Shunguang |
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| Institution: | Jia Jia Kang Shunguang (College of Information Engineering, Tarim University, Alar, Xinjiang 843300) |
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| Abstract: | Through analyzing the data of cotton output of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps（XPCC） from 2001 to 2012, the paper builds a GM（ 1,1 ） grey mathematical model to forecast cotton yields, which is combined with Matlab software to forecast the cot- ton yields of the XPCC in nearly three years, the forecasting accuracy reaches the first - rate by a posteriori error test. The forecasting results will be reference for cotton industry development for the XPCC. |
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| Keywords: | grey system Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps cotton yield GM （1 1） model |
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