Factors affecting the dynamics of the population of Fagus crenata in the Takakuma Mountains, the southern limit of its distribution area

The refugee population of Fagus crenata in the Takakuma Mountains, Kyushu, Japan, represents the southern limit of this species' distribution area. Because this population is the most exposed to the global warming effect, records of this population are likely to provide useful information on the response of this species to global warming. The aim of this study was to record the present status of this valuable population, enabling judgment of its sustainability. The density of successive F. crenata trees and saplings was low regardless of the coverage of dwarf bamboo. Moreover, the proportion of empty nuts observed was considerably high, suggesting to be the likely major factor limiting recruitment of saplings or successors in this population. Radial growth of F. crenata was shown to have been decreasing for the past 50 years, and there was a significantly negative correlation with the warmth index. The decreasing growth rate and poor regenerative ability caused by the high proportion of empty nuts suggest the possibility that this population will degrade further in the future, possibly being replaced by shrubs and small tree species.