基于模糊综合评价的赣抚平原灌区水资源承载力研究

针对灌区用水结构特点,构建了适合灌区的水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重,并与模糊综合评价法有机结合,以赣抚平原灌区为例进行具体计算与分析。结果显示,现状年、2020年和2030年,赣抚平原灌区水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.603 4、0.590 3和0.653 8,表明该地水资源开发利用已经初具规模,但仍有较大的开发利用潜力,水资源对社会经济发展有较好的保障。通过对影响水资源承载力的18个指标和4个子系统进行独立的模糊综合计算,结果表明灌区供水量分配指标骤减引起2020年水资源承载力的小幅下降,随着水利工程改造和节水型社会的建设,水资源利用率大幅提高,2030年灌区水资源承载力又有所增强,水资源承载状况表现为良好的发展态势。

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Ganfu Plain Irrigation District Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

In this paper,the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity for irrigation district was established,based on the structural features of water use in irrigation district.The analytic hierarchy process (AHP)is used to determine the weight of each indicator,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was combined to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Ganfu Plain irrigation district.The results showed that the comprehensive grades is respectively 0.603 4、0.590 3 and 0.653 8 in the status year,2020 and 2030,which indicated that the water resources carrying capacity in Ganfu Plain irrigation district has already taken shape,and there is still a very considerable potential for the exploitation and development of the water resources in this region to ensure the socio-economic development.Furthermore,we independently evaluated the 1 8 indicators and the four sub-systems with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.We found that,the dramatically decrease of water supply distribution index causes a slight decline in water resources carrying capacity in 2020.However,with the improved water use efficiency derived from the transforma-tion of water conservancy proj ects and the construction of water-saving society,the water resources carrying capacity enhenced in 2030.Accordingly,the condition of water resources carrying capacity in Ganfu Plain irrigation district showes a good developing tendency.