灰色系统理论在蚕豆赤斑病流行系统分析中的应用初探

 本文介绍了灰色系统理论的重要部分,灰色关联度分析的原理和方法,分析了射阳县1973-1984年蚕豆赤斑病流行系统。结果表明菌源、4月中旬雨日数、上年11月至下年1月的雨日数和4月上中旬露日数是影响蚕豆赤斑病流行势的主导因素。变异系数和方差分析证明了灰色关联度分析的结果是正确、可靠的,该结论与客观实际一致。从而否定了"菌源不是影响蚕豆赤斑病发生的主导因素,,的观点。因此,在预测蚕豆赤斑病流行趋势时,首先务必考虑上述主导因素。这种新的数学方法比其它任何方法都更简易、方便和有效。另外,本文还讨论了灰色关联度分析与相关分析结果不一致的原因,以及灰色关联度分析在其它植病流行系统分析中应用的可能性和注意点。

ON THE APPLICATION OF THE GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE PREVAILLING SYSTEM OF BOTRYTIS FABAE

The important parts of the grey system theory-the principle and method of the grey relational grade analysis are introduced in this article.And the prevailling system of Botrytis fabae of sheyang County from 1973-1984 were analysed by this method.The results showed that the source of inoculum,the rainy days in the second ten days of April the rainy days from last Nove-mber to next January,and the dewy days in the first twenty days in April were leading factors influencing the prevailling level of Botrytis fabae.The above results were proved to be correct and reliable by the analyses of variation coefficients and variances.And it was consistent with objective reality,which also helped to show the defects of the viewpoint that the source of inoculum is not a leading factor affecting the prevailling level of Botrytis fabae.Therefore,when we forecast the prevailling level of Botrytis fabae,we must first take the above mentioned leading factors into considera-tions.This new mathematical method is simple,more covenient and more effective than any other ones so far applied. Discussions are also made for certain problems in application of this method.