近42年榆中县气温突变及周期变化

利用榆中县1971-2012年的日平均气温,采用线性倾向率法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析等方法,对榆中县42年来的温度变化和突变现象进行了研究。结果表明,近42年来,榆中县年平均气温变化在5.73~8.04℃,年平均气温呈现升高趋势,气候倾向率为0.26℃·10a~(-1),并且榆中县年平均气温突变出现在1995―1996年;榆中县四季平均气温表现为相同趋势,其中冬季的气候倾向率达到0.28℃·10a~(-1),增幅最明显;春季次之,为0.25℃·10a~(-1)。28a时间尺度是榆中年平均气温的第一主周期,同时还有14和6a时间尺度变化周期。榆中县气温呈上升趋势,且呈一定的周期和规律变化。

Mutations and cycle analysis of temperature in Yuzhong in recent 42 years

The characteristics of climate changes in Yuzhong was analyzed with the methods of the linear regression method, cumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelets analysis method based on daily average air temperature data observed at Yuzhong meteorological station from 1971 to 2012.The authors analyzed the climate changing characteristics and abrupt changes over the last 42 years in the area.The results showed that the climate in this region showed a warming trend, the annual mean temperature varied between 5.73 and 8.04 ℃, and the annual temperature has increased by 0.26 ℃·10 a-1 in recent 42 years, and an abrupt change occurred in 1995-1996.In addition, the seasonal temperature showed the same trend, and the increase of temperature in winter were higher (0.28 ℃·10 a-1) than in the spring (0.25 ℃·10 a-1).The climate change interval analysis that the annual mean temperature fluctuated significantly with the interval of 28 years,14 years and 6 years.There is an upward trend of temperatures in Yuzhong, with a certain period and the regularity of variation.