基于3S技术的图们江中游湿地生态安全评价与预警研究

以图们江中游湿地生态安全为出发点，基于景观生态学原理，采用压力-状态-响应模型，选取能充分反映图们江中游湿地的生态安全的10项指标，构建了图们江中游湿地生态安全评价指标体系。以3s技术为分析工具，对TM／MSS影像进行解译并获取1976、1990、2000和2010年4个年份的指标数据，并运用AHP确定指标权重；使用逻辑斯蒂增长曲线模型对各个指标进行单指标评价，用综合评价法对图们江中游4个年份的湿地生态安全进行评价，得到1976年生态安全值为0．665，湿地生态系统较安全，而1990、2000、2010年生态安全值依次为0．570、0．432、0．333，系统处于预警状态，应及时采取措施保护该区湿地生态系统。在此基础上，基于灰色预测模型建立了湿地生态安全预测模型。经验证，模型精度较高，可对图们江中游湿地生态安全进行预测研究。最终预测了图们江中游未来40年的湿地生态系统变化趋势，预测值分别为0．3011、0．2856、0．2136、0．1865，表明湿地生态系统处于中度预警及严重预警状态，生态安全面临的威胁越来越严重．急需对该区域湿地生态系统进行保护与管理。

Research on Ecological Safety Evaluation and Warning of Wetlands in Tumen River Middle Reaches Based on 3S Technology

Starting from ecological safety of Tumen River middle reaches wetland, based on landscape ecology principle, using pressure - state - response model, 10 indexes which can fully reflect ecological safety of Tureen River middle reaches wetland were selected, the evaluation index system was constructed. With 3S technology as analysis tool, TM/MSS image was interpreted, the index of 1976, 1990, 2000 and 2010 were ob-tained, AHP was used to determine the index weight; the logistical growth curve model was used for single index evaluation, comprehensive eval-uation method was adopted to evaluate wetland ecological safety in 4 years, the ecological safety value in 1976 was 0. 665, the wetland eeo - sys-tem was relatively safe; while the ecological safety value in 1990, 2000 and 2010 were 0.570, 0.432, 0.333, the system was in warning condi-tion. On the basis of this, the wetland ecological safety prediction model was established based on grey prediction model. The variation trend of wetland eco - system in future 40 years in Tumen River middle reaches was forecasted, the predicted value are 0. 301 1, 0. 285 6, 0. 213 6 and 0. 186 5, indicating that the wetland ecological system was in a moderate warning state and a serious warning state. Ecological security threat is very serious and this area needs more protection and management.