| 陕西省粮食生产与粮食安全趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建平,上官周平.陕西省粮食生产与粮食安全趋势预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(4):245-251. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建平 上官周平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北农林科技大学农学院,陕西,杨凌,712100
2. 西北农林科技大学农学院,陕西,杨凌,712100;中国科学院水土保持研究所,陕西,杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目课题(KSCX1-YW-12); 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD09B04) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于移动平均法,应用陕西省近31 a粮食产量数据对其未来10a粮食综合生产潜力进行了短期预测.结果表明:陕西省粮食单产提升幅度较小,年均每公顷增长46.2 kg;粮食总产上升缓慢,年均增长10万t;在粮食产量构成中,小麦产量及其比例下降,玉米产量及其比例上升,水稻与大豆产量及其比重变化较小;各粮食作物单产均稳步提升;人...
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| 关 键 词： | 移动平均法 粮食生产潜力 气象产量 粮食单产 陕西省 |
Trend forecast of grain production and food security in Shaanxi Province |
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| LI Jianping,SHANGGUAN Zhouping.Trend forecast of grain production and food security in Shaanxi Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2011,29(4):245-251. |
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| Authors: | LI Jianping SHANGGUAN Zhouping |
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| Institution: | LI Jian-ping1,SHANGGUAN Zhou-ping1,2(1.College of Agronomy,Northwest A & F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China,2.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on moving average method and data of grain production in Shaanxi Province over the past 31 years,its short-term grain production potential of the next 10 years was predicted.The results indicate that: grain yield per unit area of Shaanxi will increase with a small scale of 46.2 kg/hm2 annually for another decade;and its total grain output increases slowly,with an average annual growth of 104 tons;In components of grain yield,wheat production and its ratio in tatal output are declining,but corn product... |
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| Keywords: | moving average method grain production potential climatic yield grain yield per unit area Shaanxi Province |
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