基于LMDI模型的新疆粮食生产影响因素分析

从新疆耕地利用角度出发,对影响新疆粮食生产变化的因素进行时间和空间上的科学分析,应用对数平均迪氏分解法(Logarithmic mean weigh division,LMDI)对2000~2014年新疆粮食生产影响因素进行分解研究,因素分别分解为耕地面积、粮食单产、复种指数和粮作比例,同时,对粮食产量变动及其分解因素的统计指标在GIS中属性挂链进行空间分析。结果表明,(1)2014年全新疆粮食总产量为1 390.81万t,15年间粮食产量增加552.03万t,其中在14个地州中,塔城地区的粮食增加量最多达到209.70万t;(2)耕地面积、复种指数、粮作比例和粮食单产的贡献产量分别为231.67万t,377.26万t,-202.32万t和145.41万t;(3)从各地州看,粮食生产空间格局分异大,各个分解因素的累加效应存在区域性空间差异。

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Xinjiang Based on LMDI Model

From the perspective of cultivated land use, spatial-temporal analyses was conducted to investigate the factors af-fecting the change of grain production in Xinjiang. In this article Logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition method was applied and the grain production change from 2000 to 2014 was decomposed into four factors:Per unit area yield of grain, multiple crop index, the cultivate land area and grain proportion. Also, the statistical index changes of grain yield and decomposition factors in GIS attribute chain spatial analysis. Results indicated that:①Xinjiang grain production push 13.9081 million tons in-total in 2014 and increased 5.5203 million tons between 2000 and 2014, respectively,Tacheng area is the dominant contribu-tor to total grain increment. ②It is estimated that the accumulated contribution values of cultivated land area, multiple-crop-ping index, grain farming index and grain yield per hectare at province level are 2.3167 million,3.7726 million -2.0232 million and 1.4541 million tons. ③There are obvious differences among accumulated effects of the four factors in different prefectures.