昭苏县天然草地牧草产量与气象因素的关系研究

为探讨各时间段降雨量、平均温度、日照时数对牧草产量的影响及其定量关系,根据逐月气象数据,将2012—2019年的降雨量、平均气温和日照时数按照时间段分别分成13组,对降雨量、平均温度、日照时数的各组数据与天然草地鲜草产量进行相关性分析及多元回归分析。结果表明：降雨量与鲜草产量的相关性最高,3—7月总降雨量与鲜草产量的正相关性达到了极显著水平（相关系数r=0.839,P=0.009<0.01）,3、4月的降雨量对牧草产量的影响最大。2—7月平均气温与鲜草产量的正相关性达到了极显著水平（相关系数r=0.840,P=0.009<0.01）,2月的平均气温对牧草产量的影响最大。日照时数与鲜草产量的相关性不显著(P>0.05)。多元回归定量分析显示,3—7月的总降雨量每增加1 mm,鲜草产量增加289.693 kg/hm²,2—7月的平均气温每增加0.1℃,鲜草产量增加144.93 kg/hm²。降雨变化对鲜草产量的变化量影响较平均气温的大。

The Relationship Between Forage Yield of Natural Grassland and Meteorological Factors in Zhaosu

To study the effects of rainfall, average temperature and sunshine hours on forage yield and the quantitative relationship among them, according to the monthly meteorological data, the rainfall, average temperature and sunshine hours were divided into 13 groups based on the time period from 2012 to 2019, and correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted on rainfall, average temperature, sunshine hours and fresh grass yield of natural grassland. The results showed that: the correlation between rainfall and fresh grass yield was the highest, the positive correlation between the total rainfall and fresh grass yield reached a very significant level from March to July (correlation coefficient r=0.839, P=0.009<0.01), and rainfall had the greatest impact on forage yield in March and April. The positive correlation between average temperature and fresh grass yield reached a very significant level from February to July (correlation coefficient r=0.840, P=0.009<0.01), and the average temperature had the greatest impact on forage yield in February. There was no significant correlation between sunshine hours and fresh grass yield (P>0.05). Multiple regression analysis showed that, fresh grass yield increased by 289.693 kg/hm² with every 1 mm increase in the total rainfall from March to July, and by 144.93 kg/hm² with every 0.1℃ increase in the average temperature from February to July. The effect of rainfall on fresh grass yield was greater than that of average temperature.