| 新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的模糊马尔可夫链状预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈亚宁,徐海量.新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的模糊马尔可夫链状预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2002,16(1):32-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈亚宁 徐海量 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展项目 ( G19990 435 0 4)，新疆重点科研项目 ( 980 130 10 )成果之一 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据新亚欧大陆桥新疆段近 40年环境灾害统计资料 ,基于模糊马尔可夫链状预测的方法及原理 ,通过对陆桥新疆段受损状况的模糊状态划分和模糊运算 ,确立受损等级 ,根据隶属度最大原则 ,确定所属状态 ,进行灾害预测 ,预测准确率接近 80 %。
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| 关 键 词： | 新亚欧大陆桥 环境灾害 模糊马尔可夫链 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7578(2002)01-032-005 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年6月12日 |
Fuzzy-Markovian Chain Forecast of Environmental Hazards in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge |
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| CHEN Ya-ning,XU Hai-liang.Fuzzy-Markovian Chain Forecast of Environmental Hazards in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2002,16(1):32-36. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Ya-ning XU Hai-liang |
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| Abstract: | Taking 40 years of environmental hazards occurred in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as object,the both damage frequency and damage sections caused by environmental hazards in Xinjiang Line were analyzed and forecasted by using Fuzzy-Markovian chain forecasting method and principle.Firstly,the characteristics of time-series distribution of damage situation was analyzed on the basis of the statistics;Secondly, the damage grade was determined by Fuzzy state divide and Fuzzy operation of damage situation;Thirdly,each state of damage situation was defined according to its maxmum principle,and then the damage situation in future was forecasted.The forcasting accuracy is nearly 80%.Result shows:the method we discussed above in this paper is accurate,scientific and practical. |
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| Keywords: | New Eurasian Continental Bridge damage situation FUzzy-Markovian Chain forecast |
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