新疆石河子作物生长季节气的气温和降水变化特征分析

选取石河子作物生长发育关键期紧密联系的四个物候性节气(谷雨、小满、芒种、小暑),分析节气内平均气温和降水的变化趋势和M-K检验突变特征,还对选出的四个物候性节气进行R/S分析,并对未来的变化趋势进行了预测,以方便为农业生产和农事活动提供参考。结果表明：(1)1981-2016年石河子这四个节气平均气温呈均增加趋势。(2)芒种节气降水量呈减少趋势,其余三个节气降水量呈增加趋势。(3)谷雨节气平均气温突变年份在2006年,小满节气在1995年,芒种节气在1996年和1999年,小暑节气在2000年和2003年发生突变。(4)石河子这四个节气平均气温和降水量未来趋势会与1981-2016年变化趋势呈相同趋势,增加趋势不是很强。

Change of temperature and precipitation of solar terms during crop growing season in Shihezi

Taking four solar terms which are closely linked with the critical periods of crop growth and development (Grain Rain, Lesser Fullness of Grain, Grain in Ear, Lesser Heat) in Shihezi, the author analyzed the change of the average temperature and precipitation and characteristics of M-K inspection mutation, did R/ S analysis, and predicted the future trends, aiming to provide references for agricultural production and farming activities. The results showed that: (1) the average temperature of the four solar terms increased during 1981- 2016 in Shihezi; (2) the precipitation of Grain in Ear solar term showed a decreasing trend, precipitation of the other three solar terms showed an increasing trend; (3) the mutation of the average temperature was in Grain Rain 2006, Lesser Fullness of Grain 1995, Grain in Ear 1996 and 1999, and Lesser Heat 2000 and 2003; (4) the future trend of the average temperature and precipitation in these four solar terms would be the same as the trend during 1981-2016, and the trend of increase would not be very strong.