Estimated persistence of northern flying squirrel populations in temperate rain forest fragments of Southeast Alaska

Habitat reserves are a common strategy used to ensure viability of wildlife populations and communities. The efficacy of reserves, however, is rarely empirically evaluated. We examined the likelihood that small (650 ha), isolated habitat reserves composed of old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) rain forest (upland-OG) and mixed-conifer peatlands (peatland-MC) would sustain populations of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus) in the absence of immigration or emigration within the Tongass National Forest in Southeast Alaska. We used demographic data obtained from a study of flying squirrels on Prince of Wales Island in Southeast Alaska and litter size from flying squirrels in similar habitat to estimate per capita rate of increase (r) of flying squirrels in upland-OG (r = 0.14, SD = 0.42) and peatland-MC habitats (r = 0.01, SD = 0.39). Our results indicated that peatland-MC habitat was unlikely to sustain populations and that viability of flying squirrel populations in small habitat reserves largely depended on the upland-OG forest component. We subsequently estimated time to extinction (T_N) based on r, its variance (v), and the potential population ceiling (K). We used T_N to calculate the probabilities (P_t) that squirrel populations would persist in small reserves containing 100%, 50%, and 25% upland-OG habitat for 25, 50, and 100 years. In each scenario, we calculated T_N and P_t for 2 levels of v. For the best-case scenario (100% upland-OG forest, lowest variance, t = 25 years), T_N was 507 years and P_t was 0.95. For the worst-case scenario (25% upland-OG forest, highest variance, t = 100 years), T_N was 237 years and P_t was 0.66. Minimum patch size of upland-OG forest required for a high probability (P_t = 0.95) of sustaining a flying squirrel population in isolation with relatively low demographic variability (v = 0.34) for 25, 50, or 100 years was 578, 5077, and 78,935 ha, respectively. We concluded that it was unlikely that small isolated habitat reserves could sustain populations of flying squirrels for >25 years in the absence of immigration. Consequently, dispersal among small reserves is critical to ensure that they function to support metapopulations of northern flying squirrels.