基于灰色预测模型的重庆市生态足迹动态分析与预测

生态足迹是近年来定量评估生态可持续发展的一种方法。以重庆统计年鉴为主要数据来源，对重庆市2000--2007年的生态足迹进行了时间序列的测度，并运用灰色预测模型对重庆市2008--2012年生态足迹做出预测。结果表明：2000--2007年，重庆市人均生态足迹从1．162226hm^2增加到1．576941hm^2；人均生态承载力从0．487810hm^2下降到0．447831hm^2；生态赤字从0．674416hm^2增加到1．129111hm^2，生态赤字持续扩大，预测2012年人均生态赤字将达到1．617362hm^2。对此提出了一些对策：控制人口数量，提高人口质量；增加科技财政投入，提高单位面积生物生产量；控制环境污染；做好土地利用总体规划，严格粹制非农律设用她规模；引导人们合理消着，提高瓷源利用率。

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint of Chongqing Based on Grey Prediction Model

In recent years, the concept of the ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel and Rees in the mid-1990s has gained much attention. Basically, the ecological footprint is the amount of productive land required to support the consumption of a given population definitely under existing technology. As a static model, the ecological footprint has been extensively used to assess the condition of sustainable development of various regions at specific points in time. However, little ：information is available on time series analyses and predictions of the ecological footprint. In the present study, an ecological ：footprint time series of Chongqing in China was calculated from 2000 to 2007. Predictions of that from 2008 to 2012 were perfo：rmed with the Gray Prediction Model developed by Deng in thee 1980s. The method can predict the development of the system using the continuously differential equation. From 2000 to 2007, the ecological footprint was 1. 162 226 ha per capita to 1. 576 941 ha per capita, while the actual ecological carrying capacity was 0. 487 810 ha per capita to 0. 447 831 ha per capita, thus leading to the ecological deficit was 0. 674 416 ha per capita to 1. 129 111 ha per capita. The ecological carrying capacity decreased, however, indicating an unsustainability of the present developmental and consumption state of Chongqing. The ecological deficit of Chongqing will reach 1. 617 362 ha per capita in 2012. Based on these results, this paper proposes some measures,, such as con- trolling the population, improving population quality, increasing science and technology input, improving botanic production per unit area, carrying out land development and arrangement, doing general land use planning well, leading rational consumption, improving resource-utilization-rate and protecting the environment.