重庆市经济发展与城乡统筹的动态关系研究

基于协整理论和向量自回归模型，利用重庆市1985—2006年的统计数据对其经济发展与城乡统筹的动态关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：重庆市经济发展与城乡统筹间存在着长期稳定的协整关系；短期内只存在重庆城乡统筹到经济发展的单向因果关系，但长期存在着一种双向的、互为因果的动态关系；同时，经济发展并不会自动促进城乡差距的缩小，若没有相关政策的调整，中长期内会继续加大城乡差距，而短期内城乡统筹对经济发展的影响并不明显，长期内在国家现有宏观政策的驱动下城乡统筹发展会促进经济发展。

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Economic Development and Urban-Rural Interactions of Chongqing

Based on the theory of cointegration and VAR model, the authors of this paper conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between economic development and urban-rural interactions, utilizing annual data of Chongqing ：from 1985 to 2006. The research findings show that there is a lasting stable cointegrative relationship between them in Chongqing, that there is only a short-term one-way causal relationship from urban-rural interactions to economic development while in the long run a cause-effect relationship exists between them, that economic growth will not automatically lead to harmonious relations between urban and rural areas, insread, it may even broaden the urban-rural gap without relevant medium-long-term policy adjustments and that in the short run, urban-rural interactions have no obvious influence on economic development but in the long run, motivated by the current macro-policies of the state, urban-rural interactions will have a positive effect on economic development.