基于突变分级模型的淤地坝坝系规划方案优选

淤地坝坝系规划方案优选需要考虑水沙控制能力、拦泥能力、淤地能力与投资效益等多方面的因素,是一个典型的复杂系统多准则决策问题,复杂系统多准则决策通常具有模糊性与不确定性.利用突变理论处理模糊与不确定问题的优势,提出了淤地坝坝系规划方案评价指标体系,建立了基于突变分级评价法的淤地坝坝系规划方案优选模型,给出了应用该模型的具体步骤.将该模型应用于偃师市浏涧河流域坝系方案优选中,对底层指标量纲一化处理并进行归一运算,利用归一公式的聚集机理对各指标的重要性进行量化,比较各方案的总突变隶属函数值,从而确定淤地坝坝系规划方案优选结果.结果表明:方案Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ总突变隶属函数值分别为0.959 2,0.918 1,0.948 4,方案Ⅰ最优,其评价结果与传统的人工对比分析方法评价结果一致,从而验证了突变分级评价模型用于淤地坝坝系规划方案优选的合理性和可行性.

Check dam system planning optimization based on mutation model

The check dam system planning is a typical multi-criteria decision problem of complex system since the factors such as water and sediment control capacity, intercepting sediment capacity, silting land capacity and investment return and so on should be taken into account. The multi-criteria decision making of complex system usually has fuzziness and uncertainty. By making use of the advantage of catastrophe theory in dealing with the fuzzy and gray problems, an indicator system for evaluating check dam system planning was put forward, and a mathematical model was established to optimize the planning based on the mutation classification evaluation method, and then a detailed procedure was described to apply the model. The method has been applied to optimize the planning of check dam system in Liujian River, basin of Yanshi City. Firstly, all the indexes of bottom level were made dimensionless and normalized, and then the importance of each indicator was quantified by aggregation mechanism of the normalized formula; Finally, the optimum planning could be obtained by comparing total value of mutation subjection function of each planning. The total values of mutation subjection function of planning I, II and III are 0.959 2, 0.918 1 and 0.948 4 respectively, thus planning I is optimal. This result is consistent with that derived from the traditional method, suggesting the mutation model is reasonable and feasible for check dam system planning optimization.