基于面板数据的PVAR模型分析安徽省城镇化对农业碳排放的影响

为评估城镇化水平对农业碳排放的影响,基于安徽省16个地级市2000—2017年的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,采用GMM的方法,从人口城镇化和土地城镇化2个视角进行分析,并用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法分析皖南、皖中和皖北3个区域城镇化对农业碳排放影响的区域差异。结果显示:1)人口城镇化和土地城镇化对农业碳排放的冲击大小以及方向不同,且存在显著的区域差异。人口城镇化和土地城镇化对农业碳排放分别呈现负向和正向影响,皖南地区人口城镇化相对其他地区冲击效应更大,持续时间更长,冲击效应增速更快,且土地城镇化加速了人口城镇化。2)人口城镇化和土地城镇化对农业碳排放的贡献存在区域差异。皖中的人口城镇化贡献最大,为9.4%;皖北的土地城镇化贡献最大,为25.0%。因此,一方面要充分发挥人口城镇化对农业碳排放的制动作用,配置管理好农用土地资源;另一方面要加强推进集约和节约,在有效利用资源、保护环境的前提下开展城镇化进程。

PVAR model analysis of the impact of urbanization on agricultural carbon emissions based on the panel data of Anhui Province

In order to evaluate the effects of urbanization level on agricultural carbon emissions, a PVAR model is constructed. The impact of urbanization on agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province is evaluated from the perspectives of population urbanization and land urbanization using the method of GMM, based on the panel data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2017. Then the impulse response function and variance decomposition method are adopted to analyze the regional differences of urbanization on agricultural emissions in the southern, central and northern Anhui. The results are as following: 1)The impact of population urbanization and land urbanization on agricultural carbon emissions is different in size and direction, and there are significant regional differences. Population urbanization and land urbanization have negative and positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions, respectively. The impact of population urbanization in southern Anhui is larger, which lasts longer and increases more rapidly than that in other regions, and the land urbanization accelerates the population urbanization. 2)There are regional differences in the contribution of population urbanization and land urbanization to agricultural carbon emissions. The population urbanization in central Anhui contributed the most(9. 4%), while the land urbanization in northern Anhui contributed the most(25. 0%).