气候变化下的农户适应性行为及其对粮食单产的影响

为探究农户适应性行为及其对农业产出的影响效应,基于河北、河南省等地粮食种植户的调查数据,采取处理效应模型,实证分析农户气候变化适应性行为对粮食单产的影响。研究表明:1)面对气候变化及其影响,近80%的农户会采取应对措施,而且农户倾向于采用成本较低的措施。2)农户是否采取适应性措施的行为决策受到内、外部因素的影响,气温、降水总量对农户适应性行为分别具有显著的正向和负向影响,种植面积对农户适应性行为具有积极影响。3)农户采取适应性措施对粮食单产具有显著正向影响,与不具有适应性行为的农户相比,采取措施农户的粮食单产更高。

Farmers' adaptation to climate change and its impact on grain yield

In order to understand the effects of farmers'' adaptation to climate change on the agricultural output, based on the field survey data of farmers in major grain producing provinces such as Hebei and Henan, a treatment effects model is adopted to empirically analyze the effects of farmers'' adaptive behaviors to climate change on grain yield. The results show that: 1)In the impacts of climate change, nearly 80% of farmers have taken corresponding measures, and farmers tend to adopt low-cost adaptive measures. 2)Whether or not the farmers take adaptive measures is affected by internal and external factors. Temperature and precipitation have significant positive and negative effects on farmers'' adaptive behavior in turn. Planting area has a positive impact on farmers'' adaptive behavior. 3)Farmers'' adaptation to climate change has a significant positive impact on the grain yield per unit area. Compared with the farmers without adaptive behaviors, the grain yield per unit area of farmers who take measures is higher.