Parameter uncertainty analysis for probability distribution of bulk power systerm reliability

Component reliability parameters are of uncertainty and are affected by the component type, operation time, and weather conditions. So do the reliability indices of bulk power systems. The calculation of its probability distributions and its alteration law affected by parameters uncertainty are researched to provide practical engineering reference with exploring the impact of the parameter uncertainty on reliability assessment. The point estimate method is firstly proposed based on the two-loop Monte-Carlo simulation, and then the improved Monte-Carlo simulation is presented to enhance the calculation efficiency further. Moreover, their theories, merits and faults are explained in detail. It can be seen from the evaluation results for the RBTS power systems that the accuracy of the three methods are similar but the improved Monte-Carlo simulation has the highest efficiency, followed by the point estimate method. The IEEE-RTS 79 power system is evaluated by using the improved Monte-Carlo simulation, and the results verify its validity.