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Long-term monitoring of tropical bats for anthropogenic impact assessment: Gauging the statistical power to detect population change |
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| Authors: | Christoph FJ Meyer Ludmilla MS Aguiar Julio Baumgarten Jean-François Cosson Jakob Fahr Neil Furey Robert Hodgkison Kirsten G Jung Thomas H Kunz Isabel Moya Paul A Racey Erica M Sampaio Christian C Voigt Christa D Weise |
| Institution: | a Institute of Experimental Ecology, University of Ulm, Albert-Einstein-Allee 11, 89069 Ulm, Germany b Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Brazil c Centro de Biodiversidad y Genética, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Cochabamba, Bolivia d Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Bahia, Brazil e Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK f INRA, UMR CBGP, Campus International de Baillarguet, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France g Department of Biology, McGill University, Montréal, Canada h INRA, UMR 406 Abeilles & Environnement, Site Agroparc, Avignon, France i Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, USA j Center for Ecology and Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, USA k Centro de Estudios en Biología Teórica y Aplicada, Programa para la Conservación de los Murciélagos de Bolivia, La Paz, Bolivia l UMR 7205, Dépt. Systématique et Evolution, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France m Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter in Cornwall, Penryn, UK n Leibniz-Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany o Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico p Bat Conservation International, Austin, USA q Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Panama r Madagasikara Voakajy, B. P. 5181, Antananarivo, Madagascar s Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Mexico |
| Abstract: | Bats are ecologically important mammals in tropical ecosystems; however, their populations face numerous environmental threats related to climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, hunting, and emerging diseases. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop and implement large-scale networks to monitor trends in bat populations over extended time periods. Using data from a range of Neotropical and Paleotropical bat assemblages, we assessed the ability for long-term monitoring programs to reliably detect temporal trends in species abundance. We explored the magnitude of within-site temporal variation in abundance and evaluated the statistical power of a suite of different sampling designs for several different bat species and ensembles. Despite pronounced temporal variation in abundance of most tropical bat species, power simulations suggest that long-term monitoring programs (?20 years) can detect population trends of 5% per year or more with adequate statistical power (?0.9). However, shorter monitoring programs (?10 years) have insufficient power for trend detection. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that a monitoring program extending over 20 years with four surveys conducted biennially on five plots per monitoring site would have the potential for detecting a 5% annual change in abundance for a suite of bat species from different ensembles. The likelihood of reaching adequate statistical power was sensitive to initial species abundance and the magnitude of count variation, stressing that only the most abundant species in an assemblage and those with generally low variation in abundance should be considered for detailed population monitoring. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity monitoring Chiroptera Population decline Population trends Power analysis Sampling design |
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