Assessing waterbird conservation objectives: An example for the Burry Inlet, UK

We use an individual-based model to assess the conservation objectives for knot Calidris canutus L. and oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus L. on the Burry Inlet Special Protection Area (SPA), UK. Population monitoring has identified a decline in oystercatcher numbers, but cannot determine whether this is due to a decline in site quality. Long term data on cockle stocks show that the biomass of the large-sized cockles consumed by oystercatcher declined after 2004, whereas a similar decline was not observed in the smaller cockles consumed by knot. The model postdicts that during the winters of 2005/2006 to 2008/2009 the site was unable to support the number of oystercatcher present at the time it was designated (i.e. the SPA population). Large cockle biomass remained low during 2009/2010, but increases in mussel biomass meant that the model postdicted that the site could support the SPA population of oystercatcher. Knot food supplies remained high during most years, except 2008/2009 during which the model postdicted that the SPA population could not be supported. The model postdicted that the stock reserved for oystercatchers after shellfishing needed to be 2-4 times the amount consumed by the birds in order to support the bird population. We recommend that where necessary, the conservation objectives of waterbirds should be assessed using a combination of thorough population size and behaviour monitoring to identify sites with population declines, and individual-based modelling on these sites to determine whether reduction in site quality may contribute to the site-specific population decline.