吉林省玉米价格波动及其影响因素分析

吉林省自2008年实施玉米临时收储政策,导致玉米市场出现国内外玉米价格倒挂、玉米加工企业成本骤增等问题。利用波动理论对1981~2014年吉林省玉米价格波动进行分析,结果表明,吉林省玉米价格波动相对较频繁,短周期波动明显,存在严重恶性波动。进一步分析影响吉林省玉米价格波动因素,国家政策对吉林省玉米价格影响最大,逐年上升的"托市价格"导致玉米供给水平对玉米价格的传导为负向,玉米生产成本、国际玉米市场和玉米需求情况对玉米价格产生正向影响。为推动玉米临时收储价格改革,稳定玉米市场价格,提出建立玉米目标价格补贴制度、完善玉米市场监测预警机制、降低玉米生产成本等对策建议。

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Corn Price in Jilin Province

Since the temporary stockpiling policy was carried out in Jilin province in 2008, the domestic corn market is facing serious problems such as foreign corn price is higher than the domestic''s, the cost of corn processing enterprises is too high, the corn stocks is too large. Reform of the temporary stockpiling policy will become extremely urgent. This paper analyzed corn price in Jilin province from 1981 to 2014 by using the fluctuation theory. The research showed that the fluctuation frequency was relatively high price of corn in Jilin province, the short period fluctuation was obvious, and there was serious malignant fluctuation. The impact factors of the price of corn in Jilin province were discussed. National policy had a great influence on the corn prices in Jilin province. Due to the temporary storage of corn prices, the supply level of corn had a negative influence on the corn price. Corn production cost, international corn market and demand situation had a positive impact on the corn price. To promote the reform of the temporary stockpiling policy and stabilize the corn market price, establishment of the target price subsidy system for corn, improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism of corn market, reduce production cost of corn were put forward.