微粒子病集团检验中批次病蛾率的估算及其误差分析

蚕种质量检验中需要根据家蚕微粒子病集团检验的结果对检验批次的病蛾率进行合理估计。推导了一个根据检验集团带毒率估算检验批次母蛾的病蛾率的公式,并采用计算机模拟抽样检验方法对该公式的无偏性、有效性及影响因素(检验批次大小、检验集团数量、检验集团大小、实际病蛾率、带毒集团检出率)进行分析。结果表明,采用该公式对检验批次病蛾率的估计具有统计无偏性,估计误差主要受到检验集团数量、带毒集团检出率的影响。

Estimation and Error Analysis on Percentage of Diseased Moths in a Batch from Pebrine Grouping Inspection

While inspecting the quality of silkworm eggs,it is necessary to estimate the percentage of diseased moths for the inspected batch of moths based on the result of silkworm pebrine grouping inspection. In this paper,we deduced a formula for estimating the percentage of diseased mother moths for the inspected batch based on the detected disease rate from grouping inspection and employed computer simulation sampling inspection to analyze its unbiasedness,effectiveness and influencing factors including the batch size,number and size of the inspection groups,actual percentage of diseased moths,and the detected rate of disease-carrying groups. The result shows that the estimated percentage of diseased moths for the inspected batch using this formula is statistically unbiased,and the estimation error is mainly influenced by the number of inspection groups and the detected rate of disease-carrying groups.