气候变化对藏药独一味适生区分布格局的影响

本研究通过实地调查,运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和环境气候数据模拟未来气候变化对青藏高原地区藏药独一味(Lamiophlomis rotata(Benth.)Kudo)适生区空间分布格局的影响,探索其适生区变迁规律.通过ArcGIS和SPSS对模拟结果分析显示,当前气候条件下独一味最适宜生长地区主要分布于青藏高原地区...

The Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of the Suitable Growing Region for Tibetan Medicine Lamiophlomis rotata

In this study,through on-the-spot investigation,the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and environmental climate data were used to simulate the impact of future climate change on the spatial distribution pattern of the suitable growing region of Tibetan medicine Lamiophlomis rotata in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and to explore the changing law of its suitable growing region. The analysis of the simulation results by ArcGIS and SPSS showed that the most suitable growing region of Lamiophlomis rotata under the current climate conditions were mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau between Sichuan and Tibet,Gansu and Qinghai,accounting for 24.87% of the total area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,of which Tibet had the largest suitable growing region,followed by Sichuan and Qinghai,and Gansu and Yunnan have the smallest proportion. In the future,climate change will move the geometric center of the suitable growing region to the southwest by 97.1 km and its altitude will rise by 267 m. The expanded area of suitable growing region brought about by climate change is about twice of the degraded area. The area of the suitable growing region in all provinces was increaseing. Tibet had increased the most,followed by Sichuan and Qinghai,while Yunnan and Gansu had not changed much. If the climate warming continues to occur,the unique artificial domestication and introduction area should be selected in the relatively high altitude area,while the low altitude area is in risk of degradation. This study provides a reference for the introduction and domestication of wild endangered medicinal plants and resource protection in climate sensitive region.