南通市水资源承载力量化分析

在辨析水资源承载力的概念基础上,结合南通市的水资源问题实际,构建符合实际的水资源承载力量化模型。收集大量资料,以2004年为基础年,预测该市2010、2015、2020年的社会经济发展指标和用水量,计算了南通市各规划年的水资源总量和水资源可利用量。根据预测数据,利用建立的水资源承载力量化模型,运用Lingo软件计算南通市在各规划年的水资源承载力。结果表明,南通市水资源承载力处于超载水平;在污水处理率提高的条件下,无需增加新的供水量,该市的水资源承载力都能达到要求。

Quantitative Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Nantong City

On the basis of differentiating the connotation of the water resources carrying capacity,the quantification model of water resources carrying capacity was constructed,combining with the actual water resources question in the Nantong area.After a large scale survey of the city statistics,the social economic indices and water demands of the years of 2010,2015 and 2020 were forecasted.Then gross water resources and its available quantity of these years were calculated.With the predicted statistics and making use of the established model for water resources carrying capability,the water resources carrying capability of each planning year were calculated by the software of Lingo.The research result indicated that water resources capacity of Nantong City was at the level of overloading;the city's water resources system could meet the required water resources carrying capacity by improving the sewage treatment rate,and there was no need to increase the quantity of water.