苹果球壳孢腐烂病菌在中国的适生性及其入侵风险

为明确我国禁止进境的植物检疫性真菌有害生物——苹果球壳孢腐烂病菌Sphaeropsis pyriputrescens在中国的适生性以及入侵风险,采用专家评判的生物学建模方法确立了其适生性评判标准,运用ArcGIS软件分析其在我国的适生范围和适生程度;同时采用多指标综合评判法量化分析该病菌入侵我国的风险等级。结果表明,苹果球壳孢腐烂病菌在我国具有很广阔的适生范围,中、高度适生区随季节变化明显。1—4月,中、高度适生区从南到北逐渐扩大;6月,高度适生区扩展到东北和新疆北部;9—10月,在苹果采摘前期和采摘期,苹果球壳孢腐烂病菌处于侵染活跃期,其高度适生区域面积最大,包含了陕西、河北、山东、甘肃、辽宁、河南、山西等我国苹果和梨主产区。按照有害生物多指标综合评判法,对15项评估指标进行赋值,计算所得风险综合评价值R为2.54,该病菌入侵我国的风险等级属特别危险。

Predication of potential geographical distribution of Sphaeropsis pyriputrescens fungal pathogen and its invasion risk in China

In order to clarify the suitability and invasion risk of Sphaeropsis pyriputrescens, a phytosanitary fungal pest prohibited from entering China, the evaluation criterion of its suitability was established by using the biological modeling method of expert evaluation, and its suitable growth range and degree in China was analyzed by using ArcGIS software. At the same time, the risk level of its invasion to China was quantitatively analyzed by using the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that S. pyriputrescens had a wide range of suitability in China and its moderately and highly suitable regions varied significantly with seasons. From January to April, the moderately and highly suitable regions gradually expanded from south to north in China, and in June, the highly suitable region expanded to northeastern China and northern Xinjiang. From September to October, during the pre-picking and picking periods of apple, the pathogen was in the active infection stage with the largest highly adaptable areas, including the main production areas of apple and pear in China such as Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Gansu, Liaoning, Henan and Shanxi provinces, etc. According to the multi-index comprehensive evaluation, 15 evaluation indexes were assigned; the calculated comprehensive evaluation value of risk (R) was 2.54, and the invasion risk of S. pyriputrescens to China was particularly dangerous.