气候变化对水稻病虫害发生发展趋势的影响

摘要：以贺州市为例，利用其近20年来地面气象观测站气候资料及贺州市八步区植保站相应年份水稻病虫害资料，通过回归相关分析等统计方法，得出相关密切的几大气候因子，分析其历年来变化对水稻病虫害发生发展趋势影响。结果表明：冬季最低温度等主要6项气候因子影响贺州市水稻病虫害发展趋势，且6项气候因子的变化均有利于水稻病虫害发展加剧，即随着气候变化，贺州市水稻病虫害有不断加剧严重趋势。

The affecting Of climate change on rice pests and diseases occurrence and development trends

To Hezhou for example, use their ground for nearly 20 years of climate data and weather observation stations Hezhou eight-step Zone Plant Protection Station of rice pests and diseases the corresponding year data, related by regression analysis, statistical methods to arrive a few closely related to climate factors, analysis of their change on rice pests and diseases over the years, the occurrence and development trend. The results showed that： in winter minimum temperatures and other major 6 climatic factors affect the development trend of Hezhou of rice diseases and insect pests, and the 6 changes in climatic factors were conducive to the development of rice diseases and insect pests increased, that was, as climate change, Hezhou rice diseases and insect pests were a serious trend of increasing.