| 灰色GM(1∶1)模型在定西县粮食产量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李葆春,马琦.灰色GM(1∶1)模型在定西县粮食产量预测中的应用[J].甘肃农业大学学报,2005,40(5):660-663. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李葆春 马琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃农业大学生命科学技术学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 以7年为一周期对定西县43年粮食产量进行平滑处理,消除了不确定因素的影响,建立了定西县1958~2000年粮食平均产量的GM(1∶1)灰色模型,并应用该模型对定西县粮食生产变化趋势做了预测,结果表明:1999~2006年和2007~2013年两个周期中定西县粮食产量预测值分别为:1 719 kg/hm2和2 229 kg/hm2。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 粮食产量 定西县 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-4315（2005）05-0660-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-03-21 |
Application of gray model in forecasting of crop yields in Dingxi county |
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| LI Bao-chun,MA Qi.Application of gray model in forecasting of crop yields in Dingxi county[J].Journal of Gansu Agricultural University,2005,40(5):660-663. |
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| Authors: | LI Bao-chun MA Qi |
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| Institution: | College of Life Science and Teehnology,Gansu Agricultural University,Gansu,Lanzhou 730070,China |
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| Abstract: | To eliminate the effect of indefined factors,the 43 years crop yields were carried out smooth treatment by 7 years period,the GM(1∶1) module of crop yield was established by using crop yields from 1958 to 2000 in Dingxi county,and the module was proved accurate and credible.The trend of production was predicted by GM(1∶1) module.The predicted crop yields in two periods,1999～2006 and 2007～2013,were 1719 kg/hm~2 and 2229 kg/hm~2 respectively. |
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| Keywords: | crop yield smooth treatment gray forecast Dingxi county |
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