北京地区冬小麦冻害预报系统初探

采用运筹学决策树方法，通过归纳冬小麦各生育阶段各种因素的综合影响，建立了冬小麦冻害预报系统。系统分为品种、播种、冬前条件、越冬条件、早春条件5个层次，并以冬4、麦自身抗寒力（品种，生长状况等）和环境因素（土壤，气象条件，田间管理等）为指标，判断预测麦苗抗寒力、越冬冻伤情况及冻害程度，预测结果均以5个等级描述，系统按照预测的冻害级别给出不同时段冻害预防的补救措施和建议，具有较高的应用价值。

Preliminary Studies on Freeze Injury Forecast System of Winter Wheat in Beijing Area

Based on the review on the integrated effects of different kinds of factors which affected the freeze injury of winter wheat, a simple empirical freeze injury forecast system for winter wheat in Beijing was established by using decision tree method. The system was divided into five levels including variety, sowing date, conditions before wintering, conditions during wintering and conditions in the early spring. The degree of cold-hardiness, frostbite and freeze injury were assessed and predicted at the five levels by the chosen indexes including the internal factors, such as variety, sowing conditions and growth status, and external factors, such as soil and meteorological conditions and management practices. The recommendations and remedial measures to prevent and reduce the winter wheat damage from the freeze injury during different growing stages in Beijing area were put forward, based on the predicted freeze injury grades.