灰色系统理论在森林生长量预测中的应用

应用灰色系统理论与方法,以永泰县1987～1997年森林生长量为时间数据序列,建立GM(1,1)生长量预测模型为:X∧t′=-1223-316144e-0-0292919908(t-1)+1223-316144。回测的最大误差为3-06%,平均误差仅为2-01%,回测的精度较高,达96-94%以上。预测模型经后验差检验:C=0-048<0-35,P=1>0-95,模型精度为Ⅰ级模型。

The Application of the Grey System Theory in the Prediction of Forest Growth Increment

By means of applying the grey system theory and method and taking the forest growth increment in Yongtai County during 1987～1997 as the time data series,the GM(1,1)prediction growth increment model is established and it is X∧t′=-1223 316144e -0 0292919908(t-1) +1223 316144.The maximum error of regression testing is 3 06%,the average error is only 2 01%,the regression testing precision is relatively high and it reaches over 96 94%.The difference check of the prediction model:C=0 048<0 35,P=1>0 95 and the model precision is I-grade model.